Scotland, The UK and The Fight for Socialism After Brexit

The summer of 2016 has proved to be the most turbulent in memory in British politics. Over the past 3 months the electorate have voted to leave the EU, David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister with Theresa May taking over, right-wingers have plunged the Labour Party into an internal crisis and leadership election, and the question of a second Scottish independence referendum is most certainly back on the table.

Of course the events that have unfolded can all be related back to the Brexit vote at the end of June, which signalled a crisis for the British establishment. Despite many polls showing remain and leave votes to be neck and neck, with leave pulling ahead at points throughout the campaign, the majority of commentators seemed to think that the remain vote would clinch victory in the end. Indeed, at the beginning of the count polls were predicting a 52% majority for remain and Nigel Farage even conceded defeat.

It is of course quite shocking that, despite having the backing of the majority of the “sensible” ruling class, the remain vote failed to win. David Cameron will go down in history as a Prime Minister who engaged in 2 risky referendums, coming close to defeat in one and losing Britain’s place in Europe in the other. However, this is no normal time in history. The social and political ramifications of the economic crisis of 2008 are coming to bear as internationally we see the rise of “anti-establishment” figures on the left and right, ranging from Trump’s presidential candidacy in the USA to the election of Syriza in Greece in 2015.

Whilst the economic crisis may officially be over, the impact is still being felt in terms of falling wages and conditions, unemployment and public service cuts across the globe. In reality the economic crisis is ongoing and nothing has been solved. There is a deep mistrust of the established parties and politicians who have overseen hated regimes of austerity. The weakness of social democracy has meant that such anger has been channelled into groupings on both the left and right who have claimed to offer something different.

Brexit can be seen as such an example, headed by Nigel Farage – a politician who has claimed to represent ordinary people against the established political class of Westminster – the Leave campaign successfully tapped into anger around the status quo and austerity. It was particularly successful in deprived towns across England and Wales where the worst impacts of deindustrialisation, austerity and casualisation have been felt. Whilst this success may stem from anger against the capitalist system that cannot provide for ordinary people, it was channelled into a fundamentally reactionary and racist campaign that sought to blame immigration for people’s genuine problems.

Of course in Scotland one of the most important elements of the Brexit result is the fact that the vote was so different here – whilst 53% voted to leave in England and Wales, 62% voted to remain in Scotland (as did 56% in Northern Ireland). This further exacerbated the constitutional crisis Britain has been engaged in since the 45% vote for independence in 2014 and the rising success of the SNP since then. Scotland has engaged upon a different political trajectory from the rest of the UK, here frustration and dissatisfaction with the status quo and austerity has been channelled into the “Yes” campaign and SNP’s promises of a different, fairer and more equal Scotland.

Another key part of the vision for Scottish independence has been emphasis on Scottish nationalism as “civic”, multi-ethnic and welcoming of migrants. This is not to say that reactionary racism and anti-migrant feeling does not exist in Scotland, but rather that it has not been a part of mainstream politics or the rhetoric of the SNP and “Yes” campaign, which has played such a fundamental role in shaping Scotland’s political trajectory. Indeed, since the Brexit vote Nicola Sturgeon has on several occasions voiced her concerns for EU migrants in the UK, confirming her support for their continued stay in Scotland.

Ever since the unprecedented 45% vote infavour of independence, the question of Scottish independence has not been far away. The SNP have become the undisputed largest party, holding 56 out of 59 Westminster seats and the largest number of MSPs at Holyrood, and boasting 120,000 members in a country of 5 million. However, Sturgeon has also shied away from talk of a second independence referendum; saying that she is interested in the wishes of the Scottish people, implying there would need to be a major shift in a situation where support for independence had stayed at around 50:50 since the referendum in 2014.

Of course a Brexit vote in spite of strong Scottish support for remain would seem to be the event that could lead to this shift. And indeed in the days following the referendum this was one of the key questions being discussed by commentators, with the Scotland on Sunday reporting 3 days after the vote that support for Scottish independence had reached 59%. As for Sturgeon and the SNP, they have remained rather coy on the question, with Sturgeon stating that they will look at all the options in regards to Scotland remaining in the EU; although there have been intimations that a second independence referendum could be possible as early as 2017.

From the SNP’s point of view this could be atactic to ensure that they do not appear to be simply manipulating the situation in order to gain independence, so that they can argue they have investigated all other possible options. This is likely to prove that independence is the only way in which Scotland could maintain EU membership. They may also be concerned about calling a referendum – if it were to be lost again then surely the question of independence would be kicked into the very long grass. There’s also a large crust of SNP MPs, MSPs and party bureaucracy who are in no rush to call for an independence referendum which would put their fat salaries and privileged lifestyles at risk.

The SNP are not the only party with concerns around independence. Both Tory and Labour politicians have been quick to state that the Scottish people have already made their minds clear with the 55% “No” vote in 2014 and that the SNP are simply creating further instability. Everything they do seems to strengthen Sturgeon, who has only increased her popularity with her seemingly strong handling of Brexit in comparison to others. The Tories know that another referendum could very likely mean the breakup of Britain.

New Prime Minister May was very quick to travel up to Scotland, emphasising that Scotland will be an important part of Brexit negotiations but also being very clear that she is against a second referendum. The question then arises, in the event of the Scottish parliament voting for a second referendum, would Westminster invoke its constitutional right to prevent it from taking place? This would be a very risky move when a referendum is supported by the Scottish parliament and people, but in this highly volatile political environment it is entirely possible because the British ruling class would have no other options. Such action would enrage the Scottish working class and could have revolutionary consequences.

The civil war in the Labour Party began almost as soon as the Brexit vote was announced with right-wing Labour MPs blaming Jeremy Corbyn and mass shadow cabinet resignations. Clearly this was a planned moved with right-wingers having been waiting for the right opportunity to turn on their leader. It has culminated in the present leadership election with “soft left” Owen Smith challenging Corbyn. Despite wrangling from the party leadership so as toprevent new members from having a vote, it looks as though Corbyn is on course for another landslide victory which begs the question of where this will leave the right-wing challengers.

The Corbyn movement represents a highly significant shift in the political landscape of England and Wales where it has formed a vibrant and viable left channel for anger at the status quo and capitalism. It serves to show that it is not just in Scotland that people in the UK are looking for a radical alternative. For Scotland however it has to be said that Corbyn has had little impact.The shift from Labour to SNP has been decisive, informed by the Blairite betrayals of the party and also their involvement with the Tories in the Better Together campaign. This has been reflected in election results, but also the fact that Corbyn’s leadership has not led to the same increase in membership in Scotland, and that Scottish Constituency Labour Party nominations have been far more evenly split than in England and Wales where the vast majority have supported Corbyn.

This is only exacerbated by the right-wing nature of the Scottish Labour Party leadership. Kezia Dugdale was very quick to voice her opposition to Corbyn and has accordingly backed Smith in the leadership contest. Additionally, even on the left of the party, including Corbyn himself, there has beena failure to appreciate the nature of the support for independence or to reconsider their position on independence/further devolution.

Looking forward it is clear that the question of independence is going to dominate Scottish politics in the near future. The most radical elements of Scottish society have placed themselves within the fight for independence for a better and fairer society for all, now this also includes feelings of solidarity with EU migrants. However, it is important that as Marxists we also emphasise the need for a fundamental break from capitalism. A capitalist Scotland will not be able to offer significant change. as we have seen in Greece with the Syriza government, left-wing promises can only go so far as long as governments remain tied to banks and capitalist institutions.

​This is particularly the case if independence is based on EU membership, the EU is a capitalist business-oriented institution and membership will be based on Scotland proving its loyalty and profitability. The coming “Yes” campaign of the SNP may well be more based around promises of Scotland’s economic viability as against the instability in the rest of the UK as they try to win over more middle class voters who voted “no” last time over fears of losing good jobs and pensions. However, this will eventually come into conflict with the SNP’s left leaning, predominately working class rank and file. Left winger Tommy Sheppard’s significant popularity in the Deputy leadership race is a sign of things to come. For now, groups such as the Radical Independence Campaign (RIC), which will be holding assemblies across Scotland in September, are particularly important in putting forward a left-wing vision for independence. As socialists we can never see independence in and of itself as an end goal. It is only through taking big business and the banks into the hands of the working class so that wealth can be shared equally and society run for the good of all rather than profit, that we can achieve real change, in Scotland and the world over